The Circularity Gap Report: Critical Raw Materials

The analysis tracks five critical raw materials—copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium and silicon—through the global economy from 2020 to 2050 using dynamic material flow analysis coupled with system dynamics modelling. It follows each material from ore through refining, manufacturing and use to end-of-life, capturing how much accumulates in products and infrastructure and when it becomes available for recovery. Outcomes are tested across three decarbonisation pathways and three levels of circular ambition, and then subjected to supply disruptions. The scope is global: it does not distinguish between countries or trade flows. All quantities are reported as refined materials, unless otherwise stated.